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Macro Roundup (Apr 19)
2023-4-19
This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.
The U.S. dollar fell against most major currencies on Tuesday after better-than-forecast growth data from China, while strong pay figures from Britain supported the pound.
Also driving dollar weakness is the likelihood disinflation already is occurring in the United States, a reason the Federal Reserve is going to pause hiking interest rates
Futures traders are pricing in an 83.4% chance of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting in May, with traders still expecting rate cuts toward the end of the year.
China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.5% year on year in the first three months of the year, data showed, beating analyst forecasts for a 4% expansion after the end of COVID-19 restrictions lifted the world’s second-largest economy.
Separate data on March activity in China also showed retail sales growth quickened to 10.6%, beating expectations and hitting a near two-year high, while factory output growth also sped up but was just below expectations.
Stock futures Stock futures ticked downward Tuesday night as traders weighed the latest round of earnings.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 47 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.1%.
The overnight action follows a day of choppy trading. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 ticked higher by 0.09%, while the Dow shed 0.03%, or 10.55 points. The Nasdaq Composite closed slightly lower by 0.04%.
The first earnings season since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has occupied most of Wall Street’s attention, with Bank of America and Goldman Sachs among the names reporting quarterly results on Tuesday.
Even though earnings are top of mind for investors, macroeconomic headwinds loom ahead, including the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking path.
Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Wednesday as U.S. crude inventories were seen falling and on strong Chinese economic data, signalling strengthening fuel demand.
Brent crude futures gained 7 cents to $84.84 a barrel at 0020 GMT. West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude was up 3 cents to $80.89 a barrel.
Gold prices clawed their way back above the key $2,000 level on Tuesday as the dollar and bond yields retreated, with investors weighing whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will pause its interest rate hike cycle after the May meeting.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,005.41 per ounce, after hitting a two-week low of $1,981.19 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures settled 0.6% higher at $2,019.70.
European markets closed higher Tuesday as investors continue to gauge the health of the global economy as well as corporate earnings.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.4%, having briefly hit a 14-month high earlier in the session.
The U.S. dollar fell against most major currencies on Tuesday after better-than-forecast growth data from China, while strong pay figures from Britain supported the pound.
Also driving dollar weakness is the likelihood disinflation already is occurring in the United States, a reason the Federal Reserve is going to pause hiking interest rates
Futures traders are pricing in an 83.4% chance of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting in May, with traders still expecting rate cuts toward the end of the year.
China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.5% year on year in the first three months of the year, data showed, beating analyst forecasts for a 4% expansion after the end of COVID-19 restrictions lifted the world’s second-largest economy.
Separate data on March activity in China also showed retail sales growth quickened to 10.6%, beating expectations and hitting a near two-year high, while factory output growth also sped up but was just below expectations.
Stock futures Stock futures ticked downward Tuesday night as traders weighed the latest round of earnings.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 47 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.1%.
The overnight action follows a day of choppy trading. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 ticked higher by 0.09%, while the Dow shed 0.03%, or 10.55 points. The Nasdaq Composite closed slightly lower by 0.04%.
The first earnings season since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has occupied most of Wall Street’s attention, with Bank of America and Goldman Sachs among the names reporting quarterly results on Tuesday.
Even though earnings are top of mind for investors, macroeconomic headwinds loom ahead, including the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking path.
Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Wednesday as U.S. crude inventories were seen falling and on strong Chinese economic data, signalling strengthening fuel demand.
Brent crude futures gained 7 cents to $84.84 a barrel at 0020 GMT. West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude was up 3 cents to $80.89 a barrel.
Gold prices clawed their way back above the key $2,000 level on Tuesday as the dollar and bond yields retreated, with investors weighing whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will pause its interest rate hike cycle after the May meeting.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,005.41 per ounce, after hitting a two-week low of $1,981.19 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures settled 0.6% higher at $2,019.70.
European markets closed higher Tuesday as investors continue to gauge the health of the global economy as well as corporate earnings.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.4%, having briefly hit a 14-month high earlier in the session.
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