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Macro Roundup (Apr 21)
2023-4-21
This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.
The U.S. dollar fell on Thursday as weak data reinforced expectations the world’s largest economy is likely headed toward recession, further supporting the view that the Federal Reserve could pause in June after another expected rate hike next month.
Against the yen, the dollar sank 0.3% to 134.30 yen. The U.S. unit rose above 135 for the first time in a month on Wednesday.
The greenback hit session lows against the yen and euro after data showed higher weekly jobless claims, a precipitous drop in mid-Atlantic business activity, and lower existing home sales.
Thursday’s data showed U.S. initial claims rose modestly to 245,000 in the latest week, while the week before was revised to show 1,000 more claims than previously reported.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a nearly 90% chance of a 25 basis-point rate increase next month, and a roughly 69% probability of a pause in June.
The ECB is expected to raise rates for a seventh straight meeting on May 4, with policymakers converging on a 25-bps hike, even if a larger move is not yet off the table.
Stock futures were little changed on Thursday night.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures inched lower by 18 points, or 0.05%. S&P 500 futures were unchanged, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.07%.
The Dow fell about 110 points, or 0.33%, during regular trading Thursday. The S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 0.8%. Tesla shares weighed on the Nasdaq, tumbling nearly 10% the day after the company posted first-quarter net income that declined sharply from the year-ago quarter.
The major averages are on pace to end the week in the red, with the Dow and the S&P 500 on track for their worst weekly performances since March.
Oil prices slid by about $2 a barrel to their lowest level since late March on Thursday, dragged lower by fears a possible recession could dent fuel demand and after a rise in U.S. gasoline inventories.
Brent crude futures settled at $81.10 a barrel, shedding $2.02, or 2.4%. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures settled at $77.29 a barrel, losing $1.87, or 2.4%.
Gold prices firmed above the $2,000 level again on Thursday as the dollar and Treasury yields pulled back after soft U.S. data pointed to the economic toll of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate-hike cycle, strengthening the case for an imminent pause.
Spot gold climbed 0.5% to $2,002.69 per ounce, after hitting a two-week low of $1969.1 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,014.30.
European stock markets closed lower Thursday as investors continued to digest more corporate earnings.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed 0.2% lower, with telecoms shares down 1.1% and autos falling 3.7%.
The U.S. dollar fell on Thursday as weak data reinforced expectations the world’s largest economy is likely headed toward recession, further supporting the view that the Federal Reserve could pause in June after another expected rate hike next month.
Against the yen, the dollar sank 0.3% to 134.30 yen. The U.S. unit rose above 135 for the first time in a month on Wednesday.
The greenback hit session lows against the yen and euro after data showed higher weekly jobless claims, a precipitous drop in mid-Atlantic business activity, and lower existing home sales.
Thursday’s data showed U.S. initial claims rose modestly to 245,000 in the latest week, while the week before was revised to show 1,000 more claims than previously reported.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a nearly 90% chance of a 25 basis-point rate increase next month, and a roughly 69% probability of a pause in June.
The ECB is expected to raise rates for a seventh straight meeting on May 4, with policymakers converging on a 25-bps hike, even if a larger move is not yet off the table.
Stock futures were little changed on Thursday night.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures inched lower by 18 points, or 0.05%. S&P 500 futures were unchanged, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.07%.
The Dow fell about 110 points, or 0.33%, during regular trading Thursday. The S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 0.8%. Tesla shares weighed on the Nasdaq, tumbling nearly 10% the day after the company posted first-quarter net income that declined sharply from the year-ago quarter.
The major averages are on pace to end the week in the red, with the Dow and the S&P 500 on track for their worst weekly performances since March.
Oil prices slid by about $2 a barrel to their lowest level since late March on Thursday, dragged lower by fears a possible recession could dent fuel demand and after a rise in U.S. gasoline inventories.
Brent crude futures settled at $81.10 a barrel, shedding $2.02, or 2.4%. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures settled at $77.29 a barrel, losing $1.87, or 2.4%.
Gold prices firmed above the $2,000 level again on Thursday as the dollar and Treasury yields pulled back after soft U.S. data pointed to the economic toll of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate-hike cycle, strengthening the case for an imminent pause.
Spot gold climbed 0.5% to $2,002.69 per ounce, after hitting a two-week low of $1969.1 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,014.30.
European stock markets closed lower Thursday as investors continued to digest more corporate earnings.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed 0.2% lower, with telecoms shares down 1.1% and autos falling 3.7%.
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