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Macro Roundup (May 9)
2023-5-9
This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.
The U.S. dollar remained was flat against most major peers on Monday, as traders wait for the Federal Reserve to acknowledge an end to its hiking cycle while trying to hedge the risk of potential recession.
The dollar was 0.2% higher against the yen at 135.13. Against the dollar, the euro has rallied nearly 16% from September lows, and is trading little changed on the day at $1.1006, supported by expectations the European Central Bank will keep interest rates high for longer than the Fed.
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points last week but sounded slightly more cautious than peers on the outlook, dropping guidance about the need for future hikes.
Fed funds futures traders are now pricing for the fed funds rate to reach 4.993 in July, and remain below that all year. The Fed’s target range stands at 5% to 5.25%, having risen rapidly from 0% since March 2022.
Traders remain watchful of the debt ceiling impasse on Capitol Hill, with the Treasury Secretary warning the government might be unable to pay debts by June 1. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation data due on Wednesday, could indicate whether the Fed must do more to rein in inflation.
S&P 500 futures are little changed Monday night as investors readied for key inflation reports due later in the week.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 12 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 futures inched down by 0.05%, while Nasdaq-100 futures shed 0.1%.
Investors followed the release of the Federal Reserve’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion survey, which found that banks had to tighten lending standards to households and businesses as a result of industry turmoil, which could in turn threaten economic growth.
The S&P 500 finished 0.05% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite ended with a gain of nearly 0.2%. The Dow was the underperformer of the session, closing almost 0.2% lower.
Traders are also looking ahead to April’s consumer price index report slated for Wednesday and the producer price index on Thursday for the newest data on the path of inflation.
Oil prices rose over 2% on Monday as U.S. recession fears eased and some traders saw crude’s three-week slide on demand worries as overdone.
Brent crude was up $1.65, or 2.19%, at $76.95 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also gained $1.78, or 2.5%, to $73.12.
Gold edged higher on Monday, regaining some ground after a retreat in the previous session and ahead of inflation data this week that could provide clues on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,021.37 per ounce. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.4% at $2,033.20.
European indexes started the trading week on a positive footing, with traders looking ahead to more corporate earnings, economic data and a Bank of England rate decision this week.
The U.S. dollar remained was flat against most major peers on Monday, as traders wait for the Federal Reserve to acknowledge an end to its hiking cycle while trying to hedge the risk of potential recession.
The dollar was 0.2% higher against the yen at 135.13. Against the dollar, the euro has rallied nearly 16% from September lows, and is trading little changed on the day at $1.1006, supported by expectations the European Central Bank will keep interest rates high for longer than the Fed.
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points last week but sounded slightly more cautious than peers on the outlook, dropping guidance about the need for future hikes.
Fed funds futures traders are now pricing for the fed funds rate to reach 4.993 in July, and remain below that all year. The Fed’s target range stands at 5% to 5.25%, having risen rapidly from 0% since March 2022.
Traders remain watchful of the debt ceiling impasse on Capitol Hill, with the Treasury Secretary warning the government might be unable to pay debts by June 1. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation data due on Wednesday, could indicate whether the Fed must do more to rein in inflation.
S&P 500 futures are little changed Monday night as investors readied for key inflation reports due later in the week.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 12 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 futures inched down by 0.05%, while Nasdaq-100 futures shed 0.1%.
Investors followed the release of the Federal Reserve’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion survey, which found that banks had to tighten lending standards to households and businesses as a result of industry turmoil, which could in turn threaten economic growth.
The S&P 500 finished 0.05% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite ended with a gain of nearly 0.2%. The Dow was the underperformer of the session, closing almost 0.2% lower.
Traders are also looking ahead to April’s consumer price index report slated for Wednesday and the producer price index on Thursday for the newest data on the path of inflation.
Oil prices rose over 2% on Monday as U.S. recession fears eased and some traders saw crude’s three-week slide on demand worries as overdone.
Brent crude was up $1.65, or 2.19%, at $76.95 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also gained $1.78, or 2.5%, to $73.12.
Gold edged higher on Monday, regaining some ground after a retreat in the previous session and ahead of inflation data this week that could provide clues on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,021.37 per ounce. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.4% at $2,033.20.
European indexes started the trading week on a positive footing, with traders looking ahead to more corporate earnings, economic data and a Bank of England rate decision this week.
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